Maximum likelihood pandemic-scale phylogenetics.

Phylogenetics has a crucial role in genomic epidemiology. Enabled by unparalleled volumes of genome sequence data generated to study and help contain the COVID-19 pandemic, phylogenetic analyses of SARS-CoV-2 genomes have shed light on the virus's origins, spread, and the emergence and reproductive success of new variants. However, most phylogenetic approaches, including maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, cannot scale to the size of the datasets from the current pandemic. We present 'MAximum Parsimonious Likelihood Estimation' (MAPLE), an approach for likelihood-based phylogenetic analysis of epidemiological genomic datasets at unprecedented scales. MAPLE infers SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies more accurately than existing maximum likelihood approaches while running up to thousands of times faster, and requiring at least 100 times less memory on large datasets. This extends the reach of genomic epidemiology, allowing the continued use of accurate phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analyses on datasets of millions of genomes.

phastSim: Efficient simulation of sequence evolution for pandemic-scale datasets.

Sequence simulators are fundamental tools in bioinformatics, as they allow us to test data processing and inference tools, and are an essential component of some inference methods. The ongoing surge in available sequence data is however testing the limits of our bioinformatics software. One example is the large number of SARS-CoV-2 genomes available, which are beyond the processing power of many methods, and simulating such large datasets is also proving difficult. Here, we present a new algorithm and software for efficiently simulating sequence evolution along extremely large trees (e.g. > 100, 000 tips) when the branches of the tree are short, as is typical in genomic epidemiology. Our algorithm is based on the Gillespie approach, and it implements an efficient multi-layered search tree structure that provides high computational efficiency by taking advantage of the fact that only a small proportion of the genome is likely to mutate at each branch of the considered phylogeny. Our open source software allows easy integration with other Python packages as well as a variety of evolutionary models, including indel models and new hypermutability models that we developed to more realistically represent SARS-CoV-2 genome evolution.

Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.

Stability of SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has led to unprecedented, nearly real-time genetic tracing due to the rapid community sequencing response. Researchers immediately leveraged these data to infer the evolutionary relationships among viral samples and to study key biological questions, including whether host viral genome editing and recombination are features of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. This global sequencing effort is inherently decentralized and must rely on data collected by many labs using a wide variety of molecular and bioinformatic techniques. There is thus a strong possibility that systematic errors associated with lab-or protocol-specific practices affect some sequences in the repositories. We find that some recurrent mutations in reported SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences have been observed predominantly or exclusively by single labs, co-localize with commonly used primer binding sites and are more likely to affect the protein-coding sequences than other similarly recurrent mutations. We show that their inclusion can affect phylogenetic inference on scales relevant to local lineage tracing, and make it appear as though there has been an excess of recurrent mutation or recombination among viral lineages. We suggest how samples can be screened and problematic variants removed, and we plan to regularly inform the scientific community with our updated results as more SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences are shared (https://virological.org/t/issues-with-sars-cov-2-sequencing-data/473 and https://virological.org/t/masking-strategies-for-sars-cov-2-alignments/480). We also develop tools for comparing and visualizing differences among very large phylogenies and we show that consistent clade- and tree-based comparisons can be made between phylogenies produced by different groups. These will facilitate evolutionary inferences and comparisons among phylogenies produced for a wide array of purposes. Building on the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Browser at UCSC, we present a toolkit to compare, analyze and combine SARS-CoV-2 phylogenies, find and remove potential sequencing errors and establish a widely shared, stable clade structure for a more accurate scientific inference and discourse.

A Daily-Updated Database and Tools for Comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 Mutation-Annotated Trees.

The vast scale of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing data has made it increasingly challenging to comprehensively analyze all available data using existing tools and file formats. To address this, we present a database of SARS-CoV-2 phylogenetic trees inferred with unrestricted public sequences, which we update daily to incorporate new sequences. Our database uses the recently proposed mutation-annotated tree (MAT) format to efficiently encode the tree with branches labeled with parsimony-inferred mutations, as well as Nextstrain clade and Pango lineage labels at clade roots. As of June 9, 2021, our SARS-CoV-2 MAT consists of 834,521 sequences and provides a comprehensive view of the virus' evolutionary history using public data. We also present matUtils-a command-line utility for rapidly querying, interpreting, and manipulating the MATs. Our daily-updated SARS-CoV-2 MAT database and matUtils software are available at http://hgdownload.soe.ucsc.edu/goldenPath/wuhCor1/UShER_SARS-CoV-2/ and https://github.com/yatisht/usher, respectively.

Genetic Variability of the SARS-CoV-2 Pocketome.

In the absence of effective treatment, COVID-19 is likely to remain a global disease burden. Compounding this threat is the near certainty that novel coronaviruses with pandemic potential will emerge in years to come. Pan-coronavirus drugs-agents active against both SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses-would address both threats. A strategy to develop such broad-spectrum inhibitors is to pharmacologically target binding sites on SARS-CoV-2 proteins that are highly conserved in other known coronaviruses, the assumption being that any selective pressure to keep a site conserved across past viruses will apply to future ones. Here we systematically mapped druggable binding pockets on the experimental structure of 15 SARS-CoV-2 proteins and analyzed their variation across 27 α- and ß-coronaviruses and across thousands of SARS-CoV-2 samples from COVID-19 patients. We find that the two most conserved druggable sites are a pocket overlapping the RNA binding site of the helicase nsp13 and the catalytic site of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase nsp12, both components of the viral replication-transcription complex. We present the data on a public web portal (https://www.thesgc.org/SARSCoV2_pocketome/), where users can interactively navigate individual protein structures and view the genetic variability of drug-binding pockets in 3D.

Mutation Rates and Selection on Synonymous Mutations in SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented response from the sequencing community. Leveraging the sequence data from more than 140,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we study mutation rates and selective pressures affecting the virus. Understanding the processes and effects of mutation and selection has profound implications for the study of viral evolution, for vaccine design, and for the tracking of viral spread. We highlight and address some common genome sequence analysis pitfalls that can lead to inaccurate inference of mutation rates and selection, such as ignoring skews in the genetic code, not accounting for recurrent mutations, and assuming evolutionary equilibrium. We find that two particular mutation rates, G →U and C →U, are similarly elevated and considerably higher than all other mutation rates, causing the majority of mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and are possibly the result of APOBEC and ROS activity. These mutations also tend to occur many times at the same genome positions along the global SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny (i.e., they are very homoplasic). We observe an effect of genomic context on mutation rates, but the effect of the context is overall limited. Although previous studies have suggested selection acting to decrease U content at synonymous sites, we bring forward evidence suggesting the opposite.